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Statistics, Data Analysis, and Decision Modeling
James R. Evans
Chapter 7 Forecasting
QUALITATIVE AND JUDGMENTAL METHODS
The Delphi Method
Indicators and Indexes for Forecasting
STATISTICAL FORECASTING MODELS
FORECASTING MODELS FOR STATIONARY TIME SERIES
Moving Average Models
Error Metrics and Forecast Accuracy
Exponential Smoothing Models
FORECASTING MODELS FOR TIME SERIES WITH TREND AND SEASONALITY
Models for Linear Trends
Models for Seasonality
Models for Trend and Seasonality
CHOOSING AND OPTIMIZING FORECASTING MODELS USING CB PREDICTOR
REGRESSION MODELS FOR FORECASTING
Autoregressive Forecasting Models
Incorporating Seasonality in Regression Models
Regression Forecasting with Causal Variables
THE PRACTICE OF FORECASTING
BASIC CONCEPTS REVIEW QUESTIONS
PROBLEMS AND APPLICATIONS
CASE: ENERGY FORECASTING
APPENDIX: ADVANCED FORECASTING MODELS—THEORY AND COMPUTATION
Double Moving Average
Double Exponential Smoothing
Holt–Winters Additive Model
Holt– –Winters Multiplicative Model
One of the major problems that managers face is forecasting future events in order to make good decisions. For example, forecasts of interest rates, energy prices, and other economic indicators are needed for financial planning; sales forecasts are needed to plan production and workforce capacity; and forecasts of trends in demographics, consumer behavior, and technological innovation are needed for long-term strategic planning. The government also invests significant resources on predicting short-run U.S. business performance using the Index of Leading Indicators. This index focuses on the performance of individual businesses, which often is highly correlated with the performance of the overall economy, and is used to forecast economic trends for the nation as a whole. In this chapter, we introduce some common methods and approaches to forecasting, including both qualitative and quantitative techniques.
Managers may choose from a wide range of forecasting techniques. Selecting the appropriate method depends on the characteristics of the forecasting problem, such as the time horizon of the variable being forecast, as well as available information on which the forecast will be based. Three major categories of forecasting approaches are qualitative and judgmental techniques, statistical time-series models, and explanatory/causal methods.
Qualitative and judgmental techniques rely on experience and intuition; they are necessary when historical data are not available or when the decision maker needs to forecast far into the future. For example, a forecast of when the next generation of a microprocessor will be available and what capabilities it might have will depend greatly on the opinions and expertise of individuals who understand the technology.
Statistical time-series models find greater applicability for short-range forecasting problems. A time series is a stream of historical data, such as weekly sales. Time-series models assume that whatever forces have influenced sales in the recent past will continue into the near future; thus, forecasts are developed by extrapolating these data into the future.
Explanatory/causal models seek to identify factors that explain statistically the patterns observed in the variable being forecast, usually with regression analysis. While time-series models use only time as the independent variable, explanatory/causal models generally include other factors. For example, forecasting the price of oil might incorporate independent variables such as the demand for oil (measured in barrels), the proportion of oil stock generated by OPEC countries, and tax rates. Although we can never prove that changes in these variables actually cause changes in the price of oil, we often have evidence that a strong influence exists.
Surveys of forecasting practices have shown that both judgmental and quantitative methods are used for forecasting sales of product lines or product families, as well as for broad company and industry forecasts. Simple time-series models are used for short- and medium-range forecasts, whereas regression analysis is the most popular method for long-range forecasting. However, many companies rely on judgmental methods far more than quantitative methods, and almost half judgmentally adjust quantitative forecasts.
In this chapter, we focus on these three approaches to forecasting. Specifically, we will discuss the following:
Historical analogy and the Delphi method as approaches to judgmental forecasting
Moving average and exponential smoothing models for time-series forecasting, with a discussion of evaluating the quality of forecasts